so in that environment what can the fed do to try to offset that to make sure that it doesn't take touts edge of or over the edge of a recession? >> so we will see what kind of deal comes out and i think there are a range of possibilities but you are correct, even if the most extreme scenarios are avoided that some plausible scenarios still involve relatively contractionary fiscal policy overall. i made that point in my remarks write said under most plausible scenarios, no matter what happens next year, that the tightening of federal fiscal policy will outweigh the stronger, more expansionary state and local fiscal policy we are getting. so, all of that is right. it's up to congress and the president, of course, to figure out how they want to make the tradeoffs between getting budgetary improvement in the long run and providing additional support for the economy in the short run. then we are going to see how that goes. i think, again, my advice on this is sort of do no harm. and in that respect, what i am particularly concerned about is that we avoid the full force of the cliff, which wo